New Delhi : India will become the world’s second-biggest aviation market by 2038 with 1bn passenger journeys a year, according to the country’s aviation minister.
Jayant Sinha believes rapid growth in passenger travel will see it leapfrog the US but lag behind China, whose own growth in passenger trips will see it overtake America by 2022, according to forecasts from the International Air Transport Association.
India’s aviation sector has boomed recently, with the number of passenger trips doubling to 200m over the past four years. Mr Sinha said he expected that growth to continue.
“We’ve set a target of 1bn trips [per year] in the next 15-20 years . . . At 1bn trips I suspect we will probably move past the US,” Mr Sinha said.
Iata’s forecast for Indian passenger trip growth would put it at a more modest 478m a year by 2036, but India’s aviation ministry officials stuck by Mr Sinha’s forecast.
India has the fastest growing domestic airline industry in the world. Last year, passenger volumes rose 17.4 per cent, ahead of second-placed China, which grew at 13.5 per cent, according to Iata.
However, the system is already running into capacity constraints. The strains on air-traffic control, for example, have led to an increase in the number of near misses between aircraft, as well as frequent delays. Last month, more than one-third of flights to and from Mumbai airport were late, airport authorities said.
The sector is growing so quickly that the country is also struggling to build enough airports, buy sufficient aircraft and recruit enough pilots to meet demand, although it is attempting to fix all three problems.
New Delhi has plans to build 50 airports and helipads in the next five years, Mr Sinha said, and a further 50 in the decade after that.
21/05/18 Kiran Stacey/Financial Times
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Jayant Sinha believes rapid growth in passenger travel will see it leapfrog the US but lag behind China, whose own growth in passenger trips will see it overtake America by 2022, according to forecasts from the International Air Transport Association.
India’s aviation sector has boomed recently, with the number of passenger trips doubling to 200m over the past four years. Mr Sinha said he expected that growth to continue.
“We’ve set a target of 1bn trips [per year] in the next 15-20 years . . . At 1bn trips I suspect we will probably move past the US,” Mr Sinha said.
Iata’s forecast for Indian passenger trip growth would put it at a more modest 478m a year by 2036, but India’s aviation ministry officials stuck by Mr Sinha’s forecast.
India has the fastest growing domestic airline industry in the world. Last year, passenger volumes rose 17.4 per cent, ahead of second-placed China, which grew at 13.5 per cent, according to Iata.
However, the system is already running into capacity constraints. The strains on air-traffic control, for example, have led to an increase in the number of near misses between aircraft, as well as frequent delays. Last month, more than one-third of flights to and from Mumbai airport were late, airport authorities said.
The sector is growing so quickly that the country is also struggling to build enough airports, buy sufficient aircraft and recruit enough pilots to meet demand, although it is attempting to fix all three problems.
New Delhi has plans to build 50 airports and helipads in the next five years, Mr Sinha said, and a further 50 in the decade after that.
21/05/18 Kiran Stacey/Financial Times
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