India is poised to become the world’s third-biggest aviation market in seven years with more than 20% growth, after China and the U.S.
To meet demand, Indian carriers have placed orders for 1,000 aircraft worth more than ₹10 lakh crore; and, more than 6,000 planes would be needed by 2050. In 2017, Indian carriers flew 117.18 million domestic passengers marking an 18% growth over 2016.
This market is to grow to 250 million by FY23, according to CAPA, an aviation advisory firm. Boeing has forecast that the Indian market would need 2,100 new planes valued at $290 billion by 2036. Airbus has said the Indian civil aviation market will grow by 8.1% for next 20 years which is above the world average of 4.4%.
Union Minister for Civil Aviation Suresh Prabhu had said last week a task force would soon be set up for the manufacture of commercial planes in India. The move is intended to encourage local manufacture, create jobs and prevent the outflow of foreign exchange. Is India, a country whose per capita GDP is $1,700 (lower than China’s $8,123), capable of manufacturing high-end planes? There has been no emphatic ‘yes’ from any quarter, but that it can produce a viable aircraft in the future is something analysts agree upon.
Kapil Kaul, director and CEO, South Asia, CAPA said, “India’s ambition to develop a viable civil commercial aircraft is in the right direction but intent doesn’t [seem] serious as of now.”
“Subject to serious funding commitment and leadership to head the development programme, we can expect an outcome by 2030-35,” he said. To deliver a successful and viable commercial aircraft programme ‘is very difficult but not impossible’.
“You need large funding in R&D, global partners and the highest commitment by the government. Chinese and Russian civil aircraft programmes are yet to take off except in their home countries. HAL has failed in delivering commercial aircraft,” he said.
In India, only Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., the public sector unit, has forayed into the manufacture of the 19-seater Dornier 228 which can be deployed in regional sectors. Similarly Taneja Aerospace has been assembling planes for years but with limited commercial success.
What is needed a serious and time-bound approach to encourage and develop a viable and futuristic aircraft manufacturing programme to at least reach the level achieved by Brazil which has developed and sustained the Embraer programme, breaking the glass ceiling.
“If Brazil can develop a viable aircraft manufacturing programme, India also can,” Mr. Kaul said.
“We must manufacture aircraft. But can we do it?” asked Jitender Bhargava, civil aviation analyst and former director at Air India.
“We don’t have the work culture to produce aircraft of international standards. The culture within the country does not inspire confidence. HAL has not made any significant headway in 30 years. It is a good thing for India to have aspirations but we need lot of investment and hard work,” Mr. Bhargava said.
Mark Martin, founder & CEO, Martin Consulting, said “We don’t have the aerospace grade of suppliers in India. Iran has far better local supplier base. Brazil developed its aerospace programme in the ’80s. In fifty years, our expertise is nearly zero. We need to be aerospace grade ready.”
Amber Dubey, partner and India head, aerospace and defence at KPMG, said. “The government needs to enforce a robust government-private collaboration to take Indian aerospace manufacturing to the next level.
So far, the world has had only two major manufacturers of commercial planes and less than a handful making small aircraft. This speaks volumes for the entry barrier to successfully make and sell planes.
However, Sweden, Japan, Brazil and China have sustained their aerospace industries in the face of competition from the big two.
“China started investing in its aerospace ecosystem in the ’80s, when it started manufacturing the MD-82, the results of which we are seeing today in the form of COMAC C919, ARJ-21 and the AVIC AG600,” Mr. Dubey said.
Component manufacturing in India is currently limited to a few players who have become reliable suppliers for global OEMs. The Tatas, UTAS, Dynamatic and Aecus are examples.
In the private sector, the Mahindra group manufactures aircraft, but abroad.
29/04/18 Lalatendu Mishra/The Hindu
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To meet demand, Indian carriers have placed orders for 1,000 aircraft worth more than ₹10 lakh crore; and, more than 6,000 planes would be needed by 2050. In 2017, Indian carriers flew 117.18 million domestic passengers marking an 18% growth over 2016.
This market is to grow to 250 million by FY23, according to CAPA, an aviation advisory firm. Boeing has forecast that the Indian market would need 2,100 new planes valued at $290 billion by 2036. Airbus has said the Indian civil aviation market will grow by 8.1% for next 20 years which is above the world average of 4.4%.
Union Minister for Civil Aviation Suresh Prabhu had said last week a task force would soon be set up for the manufacture of commercial planes in India. The move is intended to encourage local manufacture, create jobs and prevent the outflow of foreign exchange. Is India, a country whose per capita GDP is $1,700 (lower than China’s $8,123), capable of manufacturing high-end planes? There has been no emphatic ‘yes’ from any quarter, but that it can produce a viable aircraft in the future is something analysts agree upon.
Kapil Kaul, director and CEO, South Asia, CAPA said, “India’s ambition to develop a viable civil commercial aircraft is in the right direction but intent doesn’t [seem] serious as of now.”
“Subject to serious funding commitment and leadership to head the development programme, we can expect an outcome by 2030-35,” he said. To deliver a successful and viable commercial aircraft programme ‘is very difficult but not impossible’.
“You need large funding in R&D, global partners and the highest commitment by the government. Chinese and Russian civil aircraft programmes are yet to take off except in their home countries. HAL has failed in delivering commercial aircraft,” he said.
In India, only Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., the public sector unit, has forayed into the manufacture of the 19-seater Dornier 228 which can be deployed in regional sectors. Similarly Taneja Aerospace has been assembling planes for years but with limited commercial success.
What is needed a serious and time-bound approach to encourage and develop a viable and futuristic aircraft manufacturing programme to at least reach the level achieved by Brazil which has developed and sustained the Embraer programme, breaking the glass ceiling.
“If Brazil can develop a viable aircraft manufacturing programme, India also can,” Mr. Kaul said.
“We must manufacture aircraft. But can we do it?” asked Jitender Bhargava, civil aviation analyst and former director at Air India.
“We don’t have the work culture to produce aircraft of international standards. The culture within the country does not inspire confidence. HAL has not made any significant headway in 30 years. It is a good thing for India to have aspirations but we need lot of investment and hard work,” Mr. Bhargava said.
Mark Martin, founder & CEO, Martin Consulting, said “We don’t have the aerospace grade of suppliers in India. Iran has far better local supplier base. Brazil developed its aerospace programme in the ’80s. In fifty years, our expertise is nearly zero. We need to be aerospace grade ready.”
Amber Dubey, partner and India head, aerospace and defence at KPMG, said. “The government needs to enforce a robust government-private collaboration to take Indian aerospace manufacturing to the next level.
So far, the world has had only two major manufacturers of commercial planes and less than a handful making small aircraft. This speaks volumes for the entry barrier to successfully make and sell planes.
However, Sweden, Japan, Brazil and China have sustained their aerospace industries in the face of competition from the big two.
“China started investing in its aerospace ecosystem in the ’80s, when it started manufacturing the MD-82, the results of which we are seeing today in the form of COMAC C919, ARJ-21 and the AVIC AG600,” Mr. Dubey said.
Component manufacturing in India is currently limited to a few players who have become reliable suppliers for global OEMs. The Tatas, UTAS, Dynamatic and Aecus are examples.
In the private sector, the Mahindra group manufactures aircraft, but abroad.
29/04/18 Lalatendu Mishra/The Hindu
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