Wednesday, October 23, 2019

IndiGo Q2 preview: Rupee depreciation may dent EBITDAR margin

New Delhi: The Board of InterGlobe Aviation-led IndiGo will meet on Thursday, October 24, to report its September quarter earnings for the financial year 2019-20 (Q2FY20) amid fresh feud between promoters Rahul Bhatia and Rakesh Gangwal.

Once considered resolved, differences between the two resurfaced on October 1, when Bhatia filed litigation against Gangwal in London under the shareholders' agreement, dated April 23, 2015. Since then, the stock of India’s largest airline has slipped 8.5 per cent, as against a 1.6 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
That said, analysts expect the airline to report robust growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR), and revenue numbers for the recently concluded quarter.

“Healthy yield expansion (up 5 per cent YoY) along with robust revenue passenger kilometres (RPKM) growth (up 25 per cent YoY) will drive revenue growth of 27 per cent YoY,” wrote analysts at Edelweiss Securities in a result preview note. They peg the revenue at Rs 7,905.3 crore, up 28 per cent, from a revenue of Rs 6,185.3 crore clocked in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (Q2FY19).

Analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, however, expect a higher revenue at Rs 8,364.7 crore, up 35.2 per cent YoY, on the back of increased international operation. The low-cost carrier’s (LCC’s) international market share was at 21 per cent of the overall capacity as on July 31, government data show. The international expansion aids lower average fuel costs as aviation turbine fuel (ATF) on overseas routes is exempt from state VAT and central excise tax.
As for EBITDAR, analysts on an average estimate the metric to grow up to Rs 1,433.4 crore, up in the range of 994 per cent YoY to 1,190.2 per cent YoY, but fall 46 per cent sequentially. The airline had logged an EBITDAR of Rs 111.1 crore in Q2FY19 and Rs 2,652.2 crore in Q1FY20.
23/10/19 Nikita Vashisht/Business Standard
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