Sunday, March 29, 2020

The airlines most in danger of going under during the crisis

The global airline industry has never had it so bad. Not even after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Airlines could lose a quarter of a trillion dollars in revenue this year, according to the International Air Transport Association, as travel comes to a standstill with countries locked down to fight the coronavirus. Most carriers will go bankrupt by the end of May if they can’t find support, Sydney-based CAPA Centre for Aviation said last week.

“In this very difficult period, it will only be the survival of the fittest” – Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker

Which airlines are most at risk? Like the virus, the crisis is indiscriminate, affecting everyone from budget operators to national flag carriers. Aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers also are under immense pressure, with Boeing Co. calling for billions of dollars in state support and Airbus SE extending credit lines and canceling its dividend.
Using the Z-score method developed by Edward Altman in the 1960s to predict bankruptcies, Bloomberg News filtered out listed commercial airlines to identify the ones most at risk of going bust, based on available data. The calculations don’t take into account government bailouts or other funding sources that could help keep operators alive.
While the list is concentrated in Asia, mostly due to high debt levels, European carriers aren’t immune, as the collapse of U.K. regional airline Flybe Group Plc proved. According to Altman, scores of 1.8 or below indicate a risk of bankruptcy and scores over 3 suggest sound footing. Indebted low-cost carrier Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA and Air France-KLM both landed below the threshold, as did American Airlines Group Inc. and SkyWest Inc.
29/03/20 Indian Express

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