Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Unfolding virus crisis may take Indian aviation back by half a decade

The magnitude of the unfolding trauma for India's airlines is now too severe to ignore.
The "Covid-19 & the State of the Indian Aviation Industry" report, released by Capa India recently, reveals that local air travel in the country will likely crash from 14 crore in 2019-20 to around 8-9 crore in the next financial year (2020-21).
It is worth noting that 8-9 crore was the level seen in 2015-16. A ToI report, citing data from Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), puts the the number of domestic air travellers in the country at 8.1 crore in 2015 and 9.9 crore in 2016.
So, the findings essentially means the unfolding novel coronavirus crisis is all set to take India's aviation sector back by at least four to five years.
The Capa India report had some more dire predictions to make. The most significant ones among them include:
(a) The Indian aviation sector is likely to shrink significantly, even if some of the vulnerable airlines manage to survive.
(b) For India to return to a pre-Covid operational fleet of 650 aircraft is likely to take up to 12 months from the time that restrictions are lifted, and this may be conservative.
07/04/20 Economic Times

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